Environics did some polling in Newfoundland and Labrador last month. There's a full story in the paper and online, but I figured I'd post the raw numbers here for the province's politics geeks to pore over.
I'll leave the analysis and spin to other folks, but here are the big things that I took away from these numbers.
First of all, this is the first time the provincial NDP has ever polled in first place in Newfoundland and Labrador. First time ever. They're still within the margin of error, but that's a massive psychological win for the New Democrats.
Off the Northeast Avalon, the NDP is in a statistical tie with the Liberals, and the PCs have a modest lead.
The undecided rate is much lower in this poll than the CRA polling from a month ago.
Both the NDP/PC Party and the provincial right track/wrong track numbers are within the margin of error - a statistical tie.
Federally, the NDP is only one point behind the Liberals outside the Northeast Avalon. For all practical purposes, the New Democrats are neck in neck with the Liberals out in Gerry Byrne/Scott Simms/Judy Foote/Scott Andrews/Peter Penashue country. (NOTE: A lot of those names carry more weight in their respective ridings than the party they represent. Somebody like Gerry Bryne could probably hold his seat if he switched affiliations and ran for the Marijuana Party.)
Anyway, those the big things that jump out to me. Have a gander at the numbers for yourself. Enjoy:
Environics conducted 1,000 telephone interviews across Newfoundland and Labrador between June 19 and 29, 2012. The margin of error on a sample of this size is plus or minus 3.2%, 19 times out of 20.
Thinking about the way things are going these days in Canada as a whole would you say that the federal government is on the right track or the wrong track?
Right Track: 20%
Wrong track: 67%
If a federal election were being held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for in your riding?
The NDP: 49%
The Liberals: 34%
The Conservatives: 17%
NB: 6% are undecided and 4% refuse to say
Rest of NL:
Thinking about the way things are going these days here in Newfoundland and Labrador would you say that the provincial government is on the right track or the wrong track?
Right Track: 45%
Wrong track: 42%
If a provincial election were being held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for in your riding?
The NL NDP: 38%
The NL Progressive Conservatives: 35%
The NL Liberals: 26%
NB: 5% are undecided and 2% refuse to say
NL NDP 49%
NL PCs 31%
NL Liberals 19%
Rest of NL:
NL NDP 32%
NL PCs 38%
NL Liberals 30%