Thirteen years of oil production off Newfoundland and Labrador resembles a small mountain range of peaks and valleys when plotted on a chart.
And as things stretch into the future, the chart looks a bit grim.
The highest oil production peak - which occurred in 2007 to 2008 - is already a memory.
The Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose oilfields pumped 125 million barrels of crude in each of those years.
They're the last of the triple-digit production years, according to a production forecast by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (CNLOPB).
Additional production from expansions at both White Rose and Hibernia will offset a continuing decline among the Grand Banks oilfields.
The next major production spike starts in the back half of 2017 when the Hebron oilfield is scheduled to pump first oil.
It will offer a longer respite from the steady decline in known oil reserves, but after that it's mostly valley.
Without the discovery of new oil reserves, that decline will continue until 2036.
Despite the projected declines, provincial oil royalty revenue is expected to top $2 billion annually over the next decade, according to a forecast by Memorial University economist Wade Locke.
Locke unveiled his forecast during an annual oil and gas conference in St. John's last summer.
It was contingent on two things:
Hibernia reaching payout and hitting the 30-per-cent royalty rate - which it did last summer.
And world oil prices averaging $85 per barrel annually.
He's since taken another look at numbers, and said his revenue projections hold up.
"Do I still believe that it'll be over $2 billion a year on average for the next 10 years? The answer is yes," said Locke.
"That what I was expecting before, and that's what I'm still expecting."
Locke's forecast does not include revenue the province will collect from its oilfield equity stakes or from corporate income tax.
The CNLOPB forecast expects expansion at the White Rose oilfield to nudge offshore production to almost 96 million barrels of oil next year.
Production won't hit that level again until a year after Hebron oil starts to flow.
CNLOPB spokesman Sean Kelly cautions the forecast uses "current reserve numbers carried by the board for each of the fields."
It's based on what the board knows today, and that will almost certainly change with more information.
"This forecast has been comprised using the information available to the board at this time," said Kelly in an e-mail.
"As new information on any existing or proposed developments is submitted, the information will be analyzed by board staff, and this forecast is subject to change."
Some information has already changed.
The CNLOPB forecast includes the ongoing North Amethyst expansion and another possible expansion at South White Rose in 2012.
Although South White Rose is approved for development, operator Husky Energy is instead focused on pinpointing reserves at another, larger expansion field in the west.
The CNLOPB forecast doesn't include a large chunk of Hibernia South.
A development plan application submitted to the board by the Hibernia partners in February is being evaluated.
The forecast only takes into account oil production from a portion of Hibernia South known as AA Block. Oil started flowing from that 48-million-barrel block in November.
mbaird@thetelegram.com
Here's a forecast of annual offshore oil production until 2036 from all oilfields - Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose, a portion of Hibernia South, North Amethyst, South White Rose and Hebron. The chart includes oil production that has already occurred since 1997. All numbers are in million of barrels of oil, except where indicated.
1997 1.27 million barrels
1998 23.80
1999 36.39
2000 52.79
2001 54.28
2002 104.33
2003 122.95
2004 114.77
2005 111.26
2006 108.61
2007 125.32
2008 125.24
2009 97.69
2010 92.13
2011 95.81
2012 88.97
2013 79.74
2014 75.31
2015 71.64
2016 65.43
2017 87.21
2018 96.08
2019 86.04 million barrels
2020 84.04
2021 81.28
2022 77.16
2023 73.35
2024 64.59
2025 59.05
2026 51.45
2027 40.48
2028 31.26
2029 25.54
2030 19.66
2031 21.40
2032 22.05
2033 16.22
2034 12.23
2035 11.94
2036 11.71
Total 2.620 billion barrels
Source: CNLOPB
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