Poll shows NDP increasing lead over Liberals during election campaign

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The gap between the New Democrats and the Liberals is widening after Week 2 of the provincial election campaign, according to a poll released today.

The MQO Research poll shows the governing Progressive Conservatives maintaining their lead at 54 per cent of decided voters.

However, support for the New Democrats has risen to 33 per cent and support for the Liberals has fallen to 13 per cent.

A poll released by the company on Sept. 20 had Progressive Conservatives at 53 per cent of decided voters, the NDP at 29 per cent and the Liberals at 18 per cent.

In the poll released today, 18 per cent of the Newfoundlanders and Labradorians surveyed said they were undecided on which party they would vote for.

Thirty-four per cent of those polled said they watched the televised leaders’ debate on Wednesday. Of those who watched the debate, 36 per cent felt PC Leader Kathy Dunderdale won, while 22 per cent saw NDP Leader Lorraine Michael as the winner, and six per cent said Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward came out on top.

The remainder of respondents said there was no clear winner.

Most polled named Dunderdale as the best premier.

Among decided voters, the PC leader continues to hold strong support with 62 per cent, far ahead of NDP Leader Michael who came in at 27 per cent support this time around. Aylward held the confidence of 11 per cent of decided voters.

Fifty-two per cent of the Newfoundland and Labrador population polled rated their satisfaction with the current PC government as seven or higher on a scale of one-to-10.

The poll also covered important issues in the upcoming election.

Respondents named health care as most important at 36 per cent, electric power issues (Muskrat Falls/Churchill Falls) second at 15 per cent, followed by education at six per cent.

Reducing provincial debt, the economy, and employment came in lower on the list of pressing issues.

The poll was based on a sample of 464 residents of Newfoundland and Labrador, with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 per cent.

The research was conducted via phone and online between Sept. 28 and Sept. 30, 2011.

For reaction, see The Weekend Telegram.

Organizations: Progressive Conservatives, NDP, MQO Research

Geographic location: Newfoundland and Labrador

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Recent comments

  • Cyril Rogers
    October 01, 2011 - 22:07

    I am disappointed in the reporting or, should I say, poor reporting by the media in this province. Where did investigative journalism go? They don't challenge anything it seems. The folks who conducted this poll are too close to the PC's and Nalcor for the results to be perceived as anything but biased. I am not suggesting they are manipulating the numbers but their close proximaity to government should give us pause for thought. What methodology did they use? How did they determine the ages of the respondents? What demographics did they consider? The overwhelming support for the PC's on the Avalon may have unduly influenced the numbers and the real results may be very different on polling day. Just look at the recent federal election and see how accurate they were!!

  • Corey
    October 01, 2011 - 20:26

    And yet, Mr. Aylward comes out & says that the researchers we're "being paid" by the PCs in the past. Can't the Liberals just face that facts...they're losing more ground & it doesn't look good for them right now. Lorraine Michael will likely lead the NDP to Official Opposition status, which is a big step forward for their party. The PCs should once again occupy Majority status, they might lose a couple of seats but not enough to topple them from their perch. Seems like Mr. Aylward & the Liberals are having a hard time accepting that they're the 3rd wheel in this race from the looks of things. No, because Mr. Aylward & the Liberals believe that anyone who supports the PCs is being "paid off". No, Mr. Aylward, it pretty much says that most people are satisfied with how the PCs have done, despite your efforts & that of the Liberals to sling mud at the PCs. Is that difficult for the Liberals & their supporters to understand or something??

  • Ed Hollett
    October 01, 2011 - 07:13

    The changes shown are within the margin of error for this poll and the previous one. As such the poll does not show the NDP "increasing lead' over the Liberals. Conventional news media in this province are notoriously bad at reporting poll results and describing what they mean. As a result, the audience is consistently misled. That may be unintentional but it is the inevitable result. The Telegram is not alone in this. The CBC online version of the story on this poll is actually much worse in the extent to which it presents false information and misleading information. I've been pointing this out for about seven years but this is actually the worst year of misreporting poll results thus far.

    • Too Funny
      October 03, 2011 - 07:59

      This is hilarious, a political hack concerned that people may be misled.

  • Jean
    October 01, 2011 - 04:53

    I have never voted NDP in my life...but that is about to change..sick of the arrogance of the PC party under this premier...In my opinion, she's brought the PC party back 15yrs...

  • roy
    September 30, 2011 - 21:58

    It,s to bad Yvonne couldn,t lead the liberals, i liked her style and determination, but when they had to fly in Kevin Alyward i could see it was the end of any chance they had to gain a few seats. Danny Dumeresque isn,t helping any with his divide the province attitude but then again what can you expect from him. He couldn,t get the leadership position, we wonder why. Everyone knows he promises of getting someone in the Grandfalls paper mill and the stephenville Mill and opening the school for the deaf doesn,t make sense, even the NDP would go that far

  • Wayne.m
    September 30, 2011 - 21:25

    NDP is a joke. Sorry to say this but I'm from the gut and I have to vote for PC for the first time in my life. Cause they are the only one who has a good platform. Sorry Ms. Lorraine Michael's and the NDP party.

  • axle
    September 30, 2011 - 18:15

    what difference does it make we already know who will win

  • Brenda
    September 30, 2011 - 17:47

    I know what the NDP will do if elected, the same thing Bob Rae did in Ontario. They will raise your taxes, drive business out of the province, kowtow to unions and bankrupt the province. Good luck with that!

  • sparky
    September 30, 2011 - 15:15

    I would like to see the NDP do really good,its time to see: what the NDP will do when elected! I`ll be voting NDP again this time!

  • So sad
    September 30, 2011 - 13:34

    Poor Yvonne is going to come back to the House with no party to lead. Well Kathy, Kevin (We have a plan) Aylward proved you wrong..he can do worse.

  • Derrick
    September 30, 2011 - 12:48

    I expect the NDP to get 3 seats and the Liberals will get 6. The high NDP results are St. John's based, that's all.

    • Jenny
      September 30, 2011 - 15:21

      I think you are wrong...a lot of the younger voters are more impressed with the NDP platform. I think the Liberal party is sinking under Aylward. I predict a PC majority with the NDP as the official opposition. Let's see who wins :)

    • Jordan
      September 30, 2011 - 16:20

      Even if the NDPs support is mainly based in St. John's the Liberals are still only at 13%, 9 points lower then they were in 2007. I would reverse your numbers and say the NDP will get six and the Libeals 3.

    • brett
      October 01, 2011 - 07:42

      Yes Jenny, Lots of youth don't think about the consequences of their action, it's about immediate relief/benefit without thinking of the domino effect. All parties play this game but the libs + ndp tend to be more short term focused, they will get more of the short term thinking vote.