A new report from the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council (APEC) identifies a number of vulnerable groups hurting more than others amidst the COVID-19 pandemic when it comes to employment prospects.
“COVID-19: Key Economic Issues for Atlantic Canada” uses Statistics Canada data to assess what groups have experienced high employment loss throughout the pandemic, comparing data from April to numbers compiled for the month of September. Commissioned by the Atlantic Chamber of Commerce, the report was released Friday.
Patrick Brannon, APEC’s major projects director, expects some workers will need retraining as a result of the pandemic.
“These are vulnerable workers,” he said. “They’re lower paid. In some cases, they’re lower educated. There has to be some retraining, potentially. There’s likely to be some innovation in these sectors going forward, so the people who have been cut currently, those jobs may not even come back.”
Youth employment
While youth under 25 years of age hold 13 per cent of jobs in the region, they’ve accounted for almost one-third (30 per cent) of all job losses through the pandemic. In April, jobs among workers in that age bracket declined year-over-year by 30 per cent, falling from 135,000 to about 95,000. Comparatively, employment for workers 25-and-over fell 13 per cent.
According to the report, youth workers are disproportionately represented in sectors severely impacted by the pandemic, including accommodations, food services and retail trade.
“There are certain industries that have been really hit hard, like tourism, accommodations, restaurants, retail and a few others,” Brannon said. “Those are the ones where there’s a lot of low-wage workers, youth in those positions ... in some cases, lower educated too.”
While youth employment rebounded somewhat in September, it was still down seven per cent compared to the same month last year,
Brannon said there will be short-term and long-term effects for youth when it comes to employment.
“They don’t have the experience that some of the other (workers) have, so they’re often the first cut — last in, first out kind of situation you’d see at some jobs,” he explained. “That’s the short-term effect. Their incomes are lower. In the long-term, these things that happen during recessions often impact youth more than other demographics. In the long-run, that has an impact on their long-term earnings, their long-term progression in positions. It’s a scarring effect that will carry with them over several years, because it will claw back some of their earning potential.”
Looking for some weekend reading? Download APEC's latest report, released today, on the demographic & diversity impacts of #COVID19 in Atlantic Canada. Read the report now (avail in English & French) @ https://t.co/EJwkO83h8w #CdnPoli #CdnEcon #NSPoli #NLPoli #NBPoli #PEPoli pic.twitter.com/cQqI7uLztF
— APEC Atlantic Canada (@APECatlantic) November 6, 2020
Education factor
On the education side, workers with a high school diploma or less experienced a higher rate of job losses than those with post-secondary and graduate degrees. And while the latter segment rebounded in September, experiencing a one per cent increase in employment year-over-year, the group with less education was still 10 per cent below the same month in 2019 (in April, that segment was down 25 per cent compared to 2019). The news was similar for workers making less than $15 an hour. By September, they were still 18 per cent below 2019 levels (that figure was down 39 per cent comparing April 2020 to April 2019).
Women have also been disproportionately impacted, as they account for almost 60 per cent of the workforce for accommodations, food services, and retail. Employment for women was down by 3.2 per cent in September relative to September 2019, while employment for men was down 2.5 per cent.
Indigenous communities in Atlantic Canada have been noticeably hurt by the pandemic financially, with large declines in fishing, hospitality, gaming and tourism. APEC projects community revenues from their own sources will decline by roughly 40 per cent in 2020 and 2021. Over one-third (35 per cent) of Indigenous businesses in the region laid-off one-half or more of their staff, which is significantly higher than the figure for all businesses in Atlantic Canada (19 per cent).
Brannon cites federal government support programs as helpful for sustaining income and employment. However, he suggests they should be more targeted to address sectors hit the hardest.
“I think that’s where some of the focus has to move to — that these lower-wage workers in certain sectors are really the ones that are feeling the brunt of the impact,” Brannon said.
Andrew Robinson is a business reporter in St. John's.
