Oxford Analytica is a top geopolitical consultancy firm, based in Oxford in the U.K. Their work has been featured in major American media and they are one of the top organizations in international relations when it comes to getting answers about the future. So what would happen if we asked their top experts about the future of Atlantic Canada?
We talked to David K. Young, the CEO of Oxford Analytica, who was kind enough to speak with us about the future of the region.
“Atlantic Canada stands to benefit from the Canadian government’s renewed emphasis on expanding the Canadian Armed Forces,” says Young, adding that this is especially true of the navy and the coast guard.
Young says Canada’s marine defence sector saw strong growth in 2014-16, including a 156 per cent increase in platform systems and shipbuilding, a growth of 15 per cent in ship overhauling, repairs and maintenance, and a growth of seven per cent in simulation systems.
“Given its regional expertise, Atlantic Canada can benefit (from a boom in ship building),” says Young. “That will matter too because the vessels and their systems are the product of engineering, scientific and academic work ‘behind the shipyard’, including in Canada’s universities, some in Atlantic Canada. There will be associated demand for computing, engineering and technological innovations, and for related training.”
Young suggests that Atlantic Canada capitalize on the momentum of ship building to build a more international economy.
This could also become self-fulfilling for the regional economy, says Young.
“As Canada’s shipping and associated sectors grow, they can attract more expertise and custom. In all this, foreign governments could also be customers or partners.”
“Relatedly, planned expansions in Canada’s reserve forces, and for the air force and army, could stimulate the economies of Atlantic Canada.”
Young suggests that different regions in Canada could compete with Atlantic Canada for access to the same jobs and to the same industries.
“But in the longer term, the growing interest in the Arctic – strategically, for its natural resources and, as ice recedes, as a shipping route – suggests that Atlantic Canada has an opportunity to thrive,” says Young. “That will also depend, though, on beating the competition from other parts of Canada that also offer relevant expertise.”
We also spoke with Oxford Analytica’s North America expert, William Arthur.
When asked about forecasts for the next 10-20 years of Atlantic Canada’s defence industry, Arthur told us that any forecast about the future of industry in Atlantic Canada would hinge on the direction of the COVID-19 crisis.
“Until there is a cure for the virus, or effective palliative treatments, the risk will remain of expensive economic dislocations,” says Arthur. “Supply is returning disjointedly but demand destruction and suppression is a major worry.
“If growth stays anemic, and debt and deficits expand, defence is one of the areas that in most countries will be earmarked for cuts.
“Potentially the industry faces a double hit of lower domestic and foreign orders, simultaneously,” Arthur adds. “That could then diminish export orders from Atlantic Canadian producers. Similarly, budgets for research and development could be hit.”
However all is not doom and gloom for Atlantic Canada if the crisis drags on.
“There could be silver linings here,” Arthur adds. “For instance, if Ottawa decides to delay or cancel parts of its 2017 Strong, Secure and Engaged military build-up policy, that will mean extending the lifetime of existing military equipment. That could make for maintenance and overhaul opportunities for Atlantic Canadian firms directly and indirectly involved in such services, be they relating to ground, sea or air-based assets.”
When asked what kind of jobs people should train for if they want to work in these industries, Arthur says that Canada’s universities, including in Atlantic Canada, will also benefit from a need for new tech innovations.
A treatment or cure for COVID-19 is likely to take considerable time, says Arthur.
“Over that time period, the current trend towards greater use of specialized high technology in the defence sector – such as increasing use of drones, satellites, artificial intelligence and the like – will increase.”
