Satisfaction with Stephen McNeil’s Liberal government has reached its highest level since the last election, despite the party failing to pick up a seat in two recent byelections.
According to the results of the latest poll from Narrative Research, satisfaction with the performance of Nova Scotia’s Liberal government has risen for three consecutive quarters and now sits at 48 per cent, compared with 45 per cent in November 2019, and climbing 13 points overall since May 2019.
“This matches the highest level of satisfaction recorded for the McNeil Liberals since the last election, suggesting that the government’s decision to close Northern Pulp did not adversely impact satisfaction,” said Margaret Brigley, CEO and partner of Narrative Research in a press release.
As for decided voter support, the survey shows little change from last quarter. Forty-three per cent of those surveyed said they would vote Liberal compared with 42 per cent in November while the PC party has 27 per cent support among decided voters compared with 26 per cent. Support for the New Democratic Party is unchanged at at 21 per cent while support for the Green party sits at 10 per cent, up from nine last quarter. Up seven points, from November, one-third of residents in the province now indicate they do not know who they would vote for in an upcoming election.
A poll by a different polling company, MQO research, yielded different results with the PCs and Liberals basically neck-and-neck. MQO's poll showed PC Party support at 32 per cent, Liberal support at 34 per cent, NDP support at 22 per cent, Green Party at 9, and “other” at 2 per cent. MQO’s undecided contingent dropped nine points to 31 per cent.
Earlier this week, the PCs picked up the Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River seat formely held by the NDP, while the NDP retained its seat in Cape Breton Centre.
MQO’s poll also included federal figures. Support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party among Nova Scotians dropped 11 percentage points to 33 since their last poll in August, while federal Conservative support increased eight percentage points to 39 per cent, now in the lead. NDP support crept up three points to 16 per cent and support for the Green Party was relatively unchanged at 10 per cent. The undecided contingent was 28 per cent, down five points, while 2 per cent said they would vote for another, unlisted party.
LEADERSHIP PREFERENCE
Back to the Narrative Research poll, in terms of leadership preference, McNeil continues to hold the top spot with 31 per cent, compared with 28 per cent in November 2019, widening the gap with PC leader Tim Houston, who lags behind 17 per cent, compared with 20 per cent last quarter.
Fifteen per cent of respondents said they prefer the NDP’s Gary Burrill - compared with 14 per cent - and the Green Party’s Thomas Trappenberg is most preferred of nine per cent of the electorate. Only one per cent prefer interim leader Thomas Bethell of the Atlantica Party. Twenty-two per cent of voters were undecided on the matter of leadership, while six per cent prefer none of the leaders.
These results are part of Narrative Research’s independent, quarterly telephone survey of Atlantic Canadians, and are based on a sample of 800 adult Nova Scotians, conducted from February 5 to 24, 2020, with overall results accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 95 out of 100 times. MQO’s poll was conducted by telephone from February 27th to March 3rd, 2020 and included 300 randomly selected eligible voters from across the province. Their margin of error for the total sample is ± 5.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
