The latest data from Statistics Canada shows job losses from the coronavirus pandemic have not hit P.E.I. as much as other provinces, but a recent economic update from the province shows that by May, job losses could reach around 10,000.
The province’s economic update projects P.E.I. will have 20,000 fewer jobs as of May than it otherwise would have because of the pandemic. But the outlook also predicts a fast recovery beginning in July, with only 2,200 fewer jobs as of August.
The latest Statistics Canada labour force survey, the first to be conducted since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, found Canada shed over one million jobs in March. The unemployment rate grew by 2.2 per cent.
By contrast, the survey captured a relatively modest increase in unemployment in P.E.I. The data indicates P.E.I. saw the disappearance of 2,100 jobs in March, as well as an increase in the unemployment rate of 0.6 per cent.
The survey was conducted between March 15 and March 21, relatively early on in the pandemic and before many public health measures were put in place restricting restaurants, retail locations and other businesses.
By contrast, the province’s economic outlook, released last week, estimated there will be 20,000 fewer jobs in P.E.I. by May.
By the numbers
Provincial COVD-19 relief:
- Emergency Income Relief Fund for self-employed: 2,000 approved applications, $1.9 million dispersed.
- Emergency Relief Worker Assistance Fund (workers w/ reduced hours): 225 approved applications (businesses), 1,115 recipients (workers), $265,800 dispersed.
- Emergency Working Capital Financing (business loans): 102 loans approved, $5 million in loans dispersed
- Grocery gift card programs (Sobeys, Loblaws grocery cards): 10,239 cards dispersed, $767,925 cost to Province
- Additional Financing to Community Business Development Corporations: $4,500,000 allocated
- Commercial Lease Rent Deferral Program: 57 rent deferral agreements in process
- COVID-19 Income Support Fund: 3763 approved applications
- Temporary Rental Assistance Benefit: 585 applications received, 3 sent for payment.
- Total estimated cost for announced relief programs: $19,217,925*
- Source: Department of Economic Growth, Tourism and Culture, April 9, 2020.
*Figure does not include cost of Income Support Fund, Temporary Rental Assistance Benefit, Commercial Lease Rent Deferral, Financing to CBDC’s.
This doesn’t mean 20,000 people are expected to lose their jobs compared to the working population now, says UPEI economist Jim Sentance. That figure would likely be around 10,000, he said.
"The 20,000 job loss isn't from current levels. Maybe half of that is. The other half is loss projected ... in employment," Sentance said.
"A quarter of our current labour force isn't going to lose their jobs."
P.E.I. Premier Dennis King has said around 9,000 Islanders have filed for Employment Insurance benefits since the start of the pandemic.
Sentance added many of the job reductions will likely be from seasonal industries, particularly P.E.I.’s hobbled tourism sector.
The province’s outlook predicted the heaviest job losses in retail, accommodation and food services, arts, entertainment and recreational, manufacturing and construction.
The outlook also forecasts that these job losses due to COVID-19 would diminish over the summer dropping from 20,000 in May to 4,900 in June, 3,900 in July and 2,200 in August.
The report suggested the severity of the job losses could depend on how well the public observes public health recommendations around social distancing.
“The shorter the time frame when the restrictions are in place will result in a quicker return to normal employment levels,” the report says.
“Conversely, the longer the restrictions are in place will result in greater loss of employment opportunities during the peak employment months of July and August.”
Sentence suggested the province’s forecast for summer was “a little optimistic".
"They're obviously seeing a significant bounce-back going to June," Sentance said.
"They're looking at construction being fully back in gear, retail being significantly back towards normal. That one in particular may be optimistic. I can see construction sort of being more or less back."
Questions remain about the Island’s three core industries – fisheries, agriculture and tourism. All are seasonal industries. It remains unclear whether a spring lobster fishing season will take place.
The tourism sector will likely face a difficult year. The province estimates the sector accounts for six per cent of jobs in the region.
P.E.I. has a high proportion of the population working in the public sector, which could help provide some shelter for the economy. The Island could also see a higher proportional amount of federal support than other regions.
"We're probably going to be net beneficiaries of this federal money being thrown around. We're a relatively low-income province, so our share of federal revenues is below our share of the population," Sentance said.
