Business leaders have been saying for years Newfoundland and Labrador is moving from having too many workers and not enough work to having too much work and not enough workers.
Now they have the numbers to prove it.
This province is expected to have 70,000 job openings in the next 10 years and will likely struggle to fill the majority of those positions.
These predictions come from the much anticipated release of the Newfoundland and Labrador Labour Market: Outlook 2020.
Darin King, minister of human resources and employment, called the outlook’s predictions a powerful tool for employers, labour and government.
“This kind of information is vital to better match job seekers with available job opportunities,” King told a group of community leaders and reporters Wednesday.
“It will help job seekers and students better prepare for their careers and opportunities available here in the province. And it will help ensure our employers have access to the skilled workforce they need to compete in a global marketplace,” he said.
The document paints a rosy picture for employment in Newfoundland and Labrador over the next decade, although with a few exceptions.
Job availability is expected to peak in 2015 and then start a decline as mega projects are completed.
Job opportunities in sectors such as health and the sciences are expected to remain strong through 2020.
Other sectors such as the fishery and most of the sectors related to the arts are expected to remain consistent or decline slightly in terms of available jobs.
The three sectors with the highest projected need for labour are utilities, health care and trades, followed closely by manufacturing, accommodations, food service, transportation and warehousing, and mining.
According to the outlook this province will need more workers of all skill and education levels over the course of the decade in order to keep up with workforce demand.
But meeting those demands will be a challenge.
According to the document the number of working age people (15-to 64 years old) in the province declined by 19.2 per cent in the first decade of the century. The same age group is expected to decline by another 19.4 per cent by 2020. The downward trend is expected to accelerate as the decade goes on.
King said the key to coping with the coming labour shortage will involve a combination of ideas. Such as encouraging older workers to stay in the workforce longer or start second careers, giving expatriate residents incentives to work in their home province, attracting newcomers from other provinces and immigration.
But first and foremost, the government’s priority is to make sure Newfoundland and Labrador residents get first crack at the opportunities associated with a high demand labour market.
“With such vast opportunity abounding the province, we see this as an era of great prosperity for our people and one that everyone must make an effort to seize,” said King.
But what is an opportunity for people in the job market is a challenge for employers.
Fortunately, most companies have been expecting a labour crunch for some time now, said Richard Alexander, executive director of the Newfoundland and Labrador Employers Council.
“It’s no surprise and it’s what we’ve been saying for many many years,” said Alexander.
He said what the outlook does for employers is give them solid projections on issues like what sectors will see the most growth and who will be hardest hit by retirements.
It’s valuable information for the companies the council represents, said Alexander.
“Employers can use that to make good strong strategic decisions about their business. So the challenge for us now is to make sure we can compete for these jobs across Canada. There’s work to be done on that and we’re going to be pushing government to do more and working with government to try and make us more competitive on our taxation environment,” said Alexander.
According to the outlook, wages in many sectors across the province are also likely to increase, something Lana Payne, president of the Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Labour, said was essential to fixing the shortage.
“I think we have to sit down and realize that we have to be competitive on wages otherwise we won’t keep people here,” said Payne.
“We’re not just competing with employers in our own province we’re competing with employers in other parts of the country as well,” said Payne.
Alexander agrees.
“Wage inflation is going to be a significant challenge for employers in this province. We’re going to see wages going towards the Alberta situation. That’s going to present challenges for small, medium and even large employers,” he said.
But while some organizations seemed happy with the outlook numbers, opposition critic Marshall Dean said huge issues are facing the province.
In a news release, he stated, while the report predicts job growth the majority of those positions will be in the high paying health sector and the low paying service/retail sectors.
Dean also noted the outlook predicts only 7,700 of the 70,000 jobs will be new. About 89 per cent of the projected positions will be opened by retirements and attrition.
“It is expected that by 2020, just nine years from now, the number of people in our province who are 65 years of age or older will have grown by 45 per cent,” said Dean.
“That means fewer working age people in the workforce contributing taxes to pay for the huge increases in health costs that are coming and for the steep hikes in electricity rates due to Muskrat Falls,” he said.
