With less than a week to election day, there’s plenty of competitive races to watch in the 2019 Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election.
Three polls were released last week, from MQO, Abacus Data, and Forum, showed the high-level popularity of each party across the province. While none of the polls released so far have gotten specific to the district, it’s clear some races will be too-close-to-call until election night.
Last week saw the Liberal and Tory buses making similar stops one after the other, which could give a hint of where the parties think the races will be.
Terra Nova
The Liberals spent much of Saturday in Clarenville, the largest town in the district. On two occasions Liberal candidate Colin Holloway and Tory candidate Lloyd Parrott found themselves in the same place, speaking to the same voters. NL Alliance candidate Barry Moores will serve as a wildcard in the race, snagging support from Holloway and Parrott.
Holloway defeated Tory incumbent Sandy Collins in the district in 2015 by just 52 votes – the narrowest margin of victory in that election.
Voters in the area say the economy in the district is on their mind. The on-going insolvency process with Burry’s Shipyard and the lack of major activity at the Bull Arm site were cited by residents who spoke with The Telegram on Saturday as a cause of anxiety for the town.
St. Barbe-L’anse aux Meadows
Last Monday, the Tories and the Liberals made it to St. Anthony within hours of one another.
Incumbent Christopher Mitchelmore and Tory candidate Sheila Fitzgerald show signs of a fight over St. Anthony, which could decide the district.
Historically, the district has been largely Liberal, with only Trevor Taylor serving as a Tory MHA in a previous configuration of the district known as the Straits-White Bay North, prior to Mitchelmore’s election as a New Democrat in 2011.
Mitchelmore’s 2015 re-election was a landslide in his favour (an almost 4,000 vote win), but the results this time could be more like the 2011 election, when Mitchelmore won by just 210 votes.
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune
The retirement of Tracey Perry leaves a rare chance for a Liberal gain in Thursday’s election.
Both the Liberals and Tories spent time in different parts of the district during their respective districts, focusing on their own areas of support.
Perry is from St. Albans, which led to large support in her home town. Tory candidate Charlene Walsh, a real estate agent, is also from the area, seeking to maintain the support her predecessor had in the area.
When the Liberals visited the district, local candidate Elvis Loveless, also a real estate agent and executive assistant to Premier Dwight Ball, focused on Harbour Breton, his home town and a hotbed of Liberal support in the district.
Harbour Main
Liberal incumbent Betty Parsley is the only Liberal to have faced a challenge for the nomination in their district. While a nomination race is just another part of democracy, the four Progressive Conservatives that lined up to challenge for the Tory nomination suggest the party sees an opportunity.
Ultimately, Helen Conway-Ottenheimer, a lawyer and wife of former PC cabinet minister John Ottenheimer, will face Parsley and NL Alliance candidate Mike Cooze for Harbour Main.
Parsley won 39 per cent of the vote in 2015, winning by 4.5 per cent over then-Tory challenger Curtis Buckle.
Thursday’s election is going to be close, no matter how you cut it. There are more battle grounds in the election, including Harbour Grace-Port de Grave, Stephenville-Port au Port and Exploits that should prove close races on May 16.
Twitter: DavidMaherNL
