ST. JOHN'S, N.L. — The next premier of Newfoundland and Labrador could be decided without an election, if ongoing coalition talks bear fruit.
Three sources familiar with the situation have told The Telegram that conversations are occurring between MHAs from “all sectors of the House of Assembly” towards creating a coalition strong enough to unseat the Liberals as governing party in the province’s minority parliament.
The coalition conversations are being held just 11 days before the spring sitting of the House of Assembly begins.
While similar conversations have taken place since the May 2019 provincial election, the difference this time is that multiple members of the Liberal party are said to be involved, though sources would not confirm how many.
Telegram sources say the conversations are in the early stages, with no formal agreements signed.
In order for the coalition to achieve a majority, 22 MHAs would have to agree to work together.
Currently, there are 20 Liberals, 15 Progressive Conservatives, three New Democrats and two independent members of the House of Assembly. With Speaker Scott Reid being from the Liberal benches, voting in the House of Assembly comes down to 19 from the governing side, with 20 votes on the opposition side. The Speaker would only cast a vote in the event of a tie. Parliamentary tradition suggests Reid would vote to maintain the status quo of any given vote, but ultimately the decision rests with Reid.
If coalition talks are successful, the next question is when coalition members would get a chance to hold a confidence vote on the Liberal government. Confidence votes are typically related to the provincial budget.
The first opportunity for a confidence vote would be on an Interim Supply measure, and those are regularly introduced ahead of the provincial budget, to ensure that government money continues to flow for three-month periods in the event of a delayed or unsuccessful budget vote.
Should a vote of non-confidence be successful, the Liberals would still have a chance to show Lt.-Gov. Judy Foote that they have the confidence of the House by working with opposition members on a coalition of their own. But if that fails, the chance goes to the next biggest party — the Progressive Conservatives — to show that they have enough votes to maintain the confidence of the House. A coalition agreement would ensure such a scenario.
The lieutenant governor’s role is to ensure there is a government in place, not to determine who comprises government members.
Should the coalition fail and no party is shown to have the confidence of the House, an election would be called.
The coalition conversations are being held just 11 days before the spring sitting of the House of Assembly begins.
The provincial Liberal party executive is still working on rules for their leadership race, to determine who will succeed Premier Dwight Ball as leader of the party.
Should a successful coalition government be formed before then, based on the talks that are happening now, the Liberals could find themselves looking for someone to act as interim leader of the opposition, rather than as interim premier.
