ST. JOHN'S, N.L. — The ability for the health care system of Newfoundland and Labrador to survive the COVID-19 pandemic hinges on public behaviour over the Easter long weekend.
Health Minister Dr. John Haggie put it plainly: “What we do this holiday weekend matters. We need to take a break from family holidays. We need to take a break from going to the cabin, because your next cabin party will be our next Caul's,” he said, referring to the funeral home cluster that accounts for 75 per cent of known cases of COVID-19 in the province to date.
Dr. Proton Rahman of Memorial University on Wednesday presented early modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic’s potential spread throughout Newfoundland and Labrador, offering an idea of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the province as the disease continues to spread.
Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says while there is evidence the spread of the coronavirus is being limited in the province right now, the finish line is not yet in sight.
“We are in this for a long time yet. As difficult as it has been, we must keep the pedal to the floor,” said Fitzgerald.
“If we ease up on our efforts, two weeks from now will be a very different picture, and two months from now will be catastrophic. We still have the opportunity to reduce the spread of this virus in our province and keep our loved ones and ourselves safe. How well we adhere to these public health measures this Easter weekend will determine how COVID-19 will look in the coming weeks.”
Among measures that need to remain a top priority: physical distancing (keeping two metres away from other people), regular handwashing, sneezing or coughing into arms and not hands, avoid touching your face and staying home if you are feeling sick.
In his March 20 letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Premier Dwight Ball referenced 21 per cent of the population of the province being age 65 years or older. On top of that, Ball wrote, 84 per cent of the population has at least one underlying health condition.
In his presentation, Rahman noted that those with lung conditions such as asthma, diabetes and high blood pressure are among those most at risk of ending up in hospital due to COVID-19.
“Diabetes and high blood pressure are mentioned on those slides and we know that we have those conditions in large numbers in this province — they’re common, unfortunately,” said Haggie.
To date, the age 54-65 demographic in this province has been hospitalized the most due to the coronavirus. A 78-year-old man and a 61-year-old woman have died from COVID-19. With more people at higher risk for complications of COVID-19, even the better-case scenario of 32 per cent of the population being infected with the coronavirus shows intensive care beds over capacity by the end of June.
“Dr. Rahman has referenced a potential shortfall, for example, even under the best-case scenario, for intensive care beds. We’re already having contingency plans as to how to address that,” said Haggie.
“We may need to further refine the layout and allocation of facilities and resources within hospitals.”
Ball said the ability of the health care system to provide lifesaving care to COVID-19 patients rests in the hands of the people of the province.
"This is not a test of our system. It's a test of you. The system fails only if you fail. What we do this weekend and beyond will make it or break it. Your action will determine if the virus grows or it dies," said Ball.
"Don't let up. Keep your distance and stay safe."
@DavidMaherNL
