The campaign for the Conservative Party leadership officially is on, with more on the line than a job for one person yearning to become prime minister. In many ways, Canada’s idea of democracy is at stake.
Unlike ever before, Conservatives face choices about what their party stands for and where it is headed. Will Conservatives 2.0 be centrist enough to appeal to diverse communities or will populist authoritarians take over and drive ever more extreme positions on the right?
There are other possibilities, though less likely and dependent on which faction makes the most noise. The CPC could end up as the Oil Patch Party or the Western Alienation Party, or simply restore itself as the Somewhat Progressive but Mostly Conservative Party.
Conservatives already are starting to coalesce around potential candidates representing those overarching tendencies. Will they choose a leader willing to compromise to broaden the electoral tent or one who will stick to ideological positions at all costs? And which positions?
Outgoing leader Andrew Scheer seemed pretty moderate and ran a predictable Conservative campaign in 2019. He increased the CPC vote, exasperating the party’s demanding right-wing bloc in the process, yet he still couldn’t win over enough new voters to gain power.
Simultaneously, Scheer’s inability to explain his religious objections to same-sex marriage and abortion rights displeased the party’s moderates and probably tipped enough Quebec votes to give the 2019 election to the Liberals.
The Conservatives want to avoid such pitfalls in the future. But how to do that?
Potential candidates such as former cabinet ministers Peter MacKay, Rona Ambrose, Erin O’Toole and Ontario MP Marilyn Gladu will likely emphasize fiscal caution and social tolerance, with traditional Tory law and order thrown in.
Conservative-turned-Liberal-turned-Conservative Jean Charest is also said to be running, but what does he represent? A revived Mulroneyism? I’m not aware of any popular demand for that, and it’s been reported that Stephen Harper himself will campaign against Charest.
Electing one of the centrists would mean a fairly open-minded party with a tax- and deficit-cutting agenda focused first on defeating Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. But that’s just one faction.
Right-wing party members are looking to Ontario MP Pierre Poilievre as a potential standard-bearer because he is seen as committed to fiscal conservatism. I’m not sure why they think that, since Poilievre’s entire life has been spent in conventional politics, but that’s the frame available right now.
This whole dynamic grew from the 2015 election loss and Harper’s resignation, which led to Scheer’s election as leader and the break with Maxime Bernier, who founded the People’s Party of Canada.
Many Conservatives like the PPC’s populist message, which pretends to offer simple solutions to complex problems like immigration, taxation and climate change. This authoritarian bloc rejects moderation and will keep demanding less non-white immigration, looser environmental regulations and government program cuts.
One former CPC candidate I know sports a red MAGA hat and talks about his experiences at Donald Trump’s rallies. It’s not clear how enthusiastic people like him will be for a Conservative Party led by MacKay, Ambrose or especially Charest.
Some polls suggest that a third of CPC supporters identify with the populists: pro-oil and pro-Trump, they despise so-called “elites” and dismiss climate change as a hoax. It is this constituency that threatens to overtake the Conservative Party.
It might turn out that as the party goes, so goes the country. Conservatives could produce respectful, constructive politics with a traditional emphasis on prosperity, low taxation and personal security. Or they could slide into Trump-style authoritarian populism and ruling by Twitter meme, where facts don’t matter and government serves the ruling party.
Right now, Trumpism is a losing electoral formula in Canada, but its simplistic messages carry an appeal that can’t be ignored. So the border wall against Trumpism is, in effect, the Conservative Party. It’s not at all clear that the party is up to the job.
