OTTAWA — It was said of the actor Errol Flynn that you always knew precisely where you stood with him because he always let you down.
It’s a maxim that could be applied equally to Donald Trump. Justin Trudeau should have known better than to believe the president when he said in the White House less than two weeks ago that he would do “anything I can to help Canada” on the China file.
Trump said he was prepared to intervene in the case of two detained Canadians with President Xi Jinping at the G20 in Japan last weekend. In the event, he said he and Xi did not discuss the case of Meng Wanzhou, the Chinese executive who is on bail in Vancouver while her extradition case is heard. Trudeau said he did not know whether Trump raised the detention of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor with Xi but the odds are high that if the Meng case was not discussed, neither was that of the two Canadians, whose arrest is rightly viewed as a blatant and illegal case of retaliation.
Trudeau and his ministers appear to have placed all their hopes in a man who, as Errol Flynn said of himself, wants faith but is faithless.
Not only did Trump not pressure Xi on the detainees, he appears to have benefited from Canada’s predicament. Relations between the U.S. and China are “back on track,” he said. Restrictions on Meng’s company, Huawei, will be lifted, while in exchange, China will buy “a tremendous amount of food and agricultural products” — presumably, canola and pork and beef that used to be sourced from Canada.
The assumption of Canadian agricultural producers is that the Chinese are behaving in a strategic fashion — blocking Canadian products in order to teach Canada a lesson over Meng but also to create space in the market for increased American imports. “That’s how the Chinese operate. I’ve always found it’s never one thing — it’s very strategic,” said the chief executive of one large Canadian exporter.
The impasse has left the Trudeau government looking more than a little sheepish. The prime minister said he raised the issue with Xi in a brief two-minute encounter at the G20 but there is “more work to do.”
No kidding.
Appealing to the better angels of Xi and his comrades has not worked. Nor has placing faith in faithless allies.
Yet, Canada could play the same strategic game as the Chinese. One course of action that has been advocated by a number of commentators who watch this file closely is to diversify our exports in Asia as a hedge against China’s blackmail. Canada’s former ambassador to China, David Mulroney, suggested a “long overdue” re-assessment of our relationship with Taiwan.
China is intent on reclaiming the island and has attempted to curb Taiwan’s diplomatic presence abroad. In the past two years, four countries have switched their recognition from Taiwan to the People’s Republic. A re-assessment by Canada of its “one China” policy, which recognizes the PRC claim that the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China, would surely be noticed in Beijing.
Canada has already taken a tentative step in loosening this policy — such as, supporting Taiwan’s inclusion in the World Health Assembly.
In a recent paper for the Macdonald Laurier think-tank, Eric Lerhe, a former commander of the Canadian Fleet Pacific, suggested increasing contact and co-operation with Taiwan when it comes to security — including port calls on the island. There are already signs of a more assertive posture when it comes to security.
A Canadian frigate, HMCS Regina, was buzzed by two Chinese jet fighters last week after it sailed through the Strait of Taiwan. The Department of National Defence said the decision to have the warship transit the strait was not intended to send a message to Beijing. But it was clearly noticed.
Appealing to the better angels of Xi and his comrades has not worked. Nor has placing faith in faithless allies
Lerhe also suggested Canada’s military, intelligence services and diplomats could benefit from language training in Taiwan. Meanwhile, Canada could also support Japan’s suggestion that Taiwan be included in the second round of talks on membership of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.
Taiwan is already Canada’s 13th largest trading partner — exports have grown from $1.4 billion a year in 2014, to $1.9 billion last year. Were Canada to relax the “one China” policy, it is a relationship that could flourish further.
Canada has pursued a track of comprehensive engagement with China. Little more than 18 months ago, prospects were bright for the launch of free trade talks. But China has revealed itself to be intent on militarization and regional hegemony.
Trudeau is trying to engage with a Chinese leader who barely acknowledged him at the G20. Maybe the time for engagement has passed. Maybe there is less chance of being let down by subtle disengagement.
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