ST. JOHN'S, N.L. — Sometimes, it’s not what happens, but how.
Monday at 6 p.m., Premier Dwight Ball announced that in the next few months he’ll become former premier Dwight Ball.
He’ll step down as Liberal leader as soon as a new one is chosen — hopefully in time for the new leader to put some sort of stamp on the next provincial budget.
It’s a short time frame, because current caucus members who might have an inside track are already falling over each other saying they’re not interested in the job.
That means there will be precious little time to plan for a successful candidate from outside caucus.
For starters, they’ll have to find an MHA willing to give up a seat. Then the leadership winner would have to win a byelection, something that becomes all the more messy because it’s likely to be happening in the midst of debate about the provincial budget.
Ball’s departure as premier means a general election will have to be held within 12 months of him leaving office.
It would have been riskier for the Liberals if Ball had announced he’d leave politics altogether when a new leader is picked instead of saying he’ll stay on as an MHA — but not by much.
With the House of Assembly split 20-20 between opposition and government members — and with Liberal Scott Reid in the Speaker’s chair — the loss of even a single government vote would make the ability pass a budget more precarious. (With Liberal Chris Mitchelmore suspended for the first two weeks of the next sitting over Carla Foote’s appointment to The Rooms, things are already on edge.)
An that’s not the only issue looming over the provincial budget. It has just been turned into an election budget — meaning that fiscal restraint is likely to get tossed under the wheels of the campaign bus in short order.
Ball’s departure as premier means a general election will have to be held within 12 months of him leaving office. Under current legislation, “Where the leader of the political party that forms the government resigns his or her position as leader and as premier of the province before the end of the third year following the most recent general election,” the new leader has 12 months to call a general election.
This is a bad situation for a province struggling with runaway debt and a massive hydro project it can’t afford.
Something else to think about? When it comes to rate mitigation plans for Muskrat Falls electrical rate increases, Ball has always been the government’s standard-bearer.
He’s the one who has repeated the mantra that rates will not rise again and again — and even repeated that commitment in his resignation message.
There are some in the party who might think that shedding Dwight Ball gives them an opportunity to shed his rate mitigation commitments as well, making Ball the fall guy.
But chances are voters wouldn’t let that happen.
This is precarious politics, folks, and if the right straw is pulled, it could well break the Liberals’ tenuous hold on power.
