I never thought in my lifetime that I would hear a sitting U.S. president say that the results of a presidential election could be contested. But I did.
It’s a terrible and terrifying thought from a country that often prides itself on its democratic ethos and history. To be honest, that’s something that you would expect to hear from a tin-pot dictator in Central America. But not in the law and order United States of America.
Some may be willing to dismiss Trump’s comments as nothing more than “Trump being Trump” or even fanciful thinking. Not me. When I hear Trump say something, repeated during the first presidential debate , I’ve learned to believe him.
Recall when he said out loud that he was going to impose a Muslim travel ban, to build a “beautiful” wall to keep out the murderers from Mexico and to heartlessly separate children from their migrant parents at the U.S. border. No one thought he was actually serious. Guess again.
Asked by a White House reporter if he would commit to providing a peaceful transfer of power (if he loses) after the Nov. 3 election, the blunt answer by President Trump stunned many.
“Well, we’re going to have to see what happens.”
What?
He then went on to remark shockingly: “You know that I’ve been complaining very strongly about the ballots and the ballots are a disaster. Get rid of the ballots and you’ll have a very … there won’t be a transfer, frankly. There’ll be a continuation.”
So Trump, if I understand him, will only recognize the actual election outcome if he wins the contest. Otherwise, he will seek mightily to de-legitimize and cast doubt upon the presidential election results.
Given the prevalence of universal mail-in balloting this time around (understandable in light of a deadly pandemic), it is possible that Trump could tally more votes than Biden on election night. Indeed, it could take a few days (or even a few weeks?) before all the mailed ballots are actually counted properly.
In the meantime, Trump will have already pronounced himself the outright election winner. Anything declared after that will be deemed by Trump and his followers as “rigged” or improper. Then what happens?
...If Trump does call into question the veracity of the election results and then tries to incite his supporters to take to the streets, all bets are off. I don’t even want to think about the carnage that could be visited upon the USA if armed militias — as we recently saw on the streets of Portland, Oregon—take matters into their own hands.
There’s a good reason why both Democrat and Republican campaigns have hired a slew of lawyers ready to go into electoral battle after Nov. 3. You can well imagine that Trump will legally contest the validity of the mail-in ballots in a handful of battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota) and other close contests (Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada).
But what happens, like in the 2000 presidential election, if this goes all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court? Bingo! That’s why the Trump White House was in such a rush to nominate conservative Judge Amy Coney Barrett as the replacement for liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
Remember Trump’s off-hand quip about needing a few conservative friends on the Supreme Court if things should get tricky on election night. He was already thinking about getting a favourable nod from the court if a constitutional challenge of the initial election results — along with cries of millions of fraudulent mail-in ballots — should end up there.
Now, there is no guarantee on which way the U.S. justices will ultimately rule. To be sure, it is a bit of a crapshoot. But I’m betting that Trump believes that he will get a favourable outcome from at least three of his appointees (that is, Neil Gorshich, Brett Kavanaugh and eventually Barrett).
There is even the possibility, though less so, that a desperate Trump would ask his Republican governors and lawmakers (in Florida, Wisconsin, Arizona and Ohio) to repudiate a subsequent Biden victory. They could be pressured into appointing pro-Trump Electoral College representatives to vote against the overall Electoral College winner Joe Biden.
Moreover, if Trump does call into question the veracity of the election results and then tries to incite his supporters to take to the streets, all bets are off. I don’t even want to think about the carnage that could be visited upon the USA if armed militias — as we recently saw on the streets of Portland, Oregon—take matters into their own hands.
In a worst case scenario, we could be witnessing considerable civil strife and violent clashes in a number of U.S. cities. And those frightening scenes could make the flare-ups after the George Floyd killing by Minnesota police officers look like a walk in the park.
Maybe none of this will come to pass and I’m just wildly imagining things. Maybe Trump will magnanimously concede to Biden on election night. On second thought, though, pray for a Biden landslide.
Peter McKenna is professor of political science at the University of Prince Edward Island in Charlottetown.
